Yes, in honour of the start of the NFL, we're having a sports break. I figure this blog has branched out enough that it's not just movies, it's entertainment in general. And since sports are entertainment, I can cover sports and be safe. Or I can just repeat what's becoming the unofficial motto: it's my blog, and I'll do what I want to.
The NFL just went through a lockout, settling things in time to have an abbreviated free agent frenzy before training camps started. Among other issues in the agreement was a rule change to move kickoffs from the 30 yard line to the 35 yard line (on a 100 yard field remember. It's the NFL, not the infinitely-more-awesome CFL with its 110 yard field). The move was done for safety reasons, since the awareness of concussions has risen dramatically in the past few years (of course, it's possible that cumulative small blows to the head are more dangerous than one large one. Research is ongoing).
Anyway, a lot of football pundits have been decrying the rule change because it'll decrease the excitement of kickoffs (wait, do we really want serious injuries in exchange for more fun? Well, yes, since we watch football. Football is inherently violent, and injuries are a large risk attached to violence. My own caring for safety is hypocritically disproven by my fandom) by increasing the amount of touchbacks. Of course, it's being blown way out of proportion (Wait, pundits exaggerate? No Wai!) and it's being implied that all kickoffs will be touchbacks. To which I say: Ha! and Ha! again.
I think that decreasing the length to get a touchback by five yards will only have a minimal impact. 10% at most. After all, out of all the kickoffs, how many were between 65 and 70 yards? (The magic length that would necessitate a return before the rule change, and can be a touchback afterwards.) To get a clear idea, I had to look at some data, which is hard because it's not like any site has specific data for each kickoff ever. In fact, the most accurate picture would come from culling through all the play-by-plays. I found an awesome site that compiled all the play-by-plays for the past 11 years (2000 - 2010) called Armchair Analysis. Soon I was poring over data, because I just finished playing through Deus Ex: Human Revolution for the second time and need a new hobby before I dive back into World of Warcraft. I know what you're thinking. "What kind of guy does statistical analysis as a hobby?" This guy, that's who *points thumbs at self*. Because it plays nicely into my second hobby - proving many people are wrong, then loudly proclaiming it.
One thing became clear when I looked at some random games, and that is that players used to return kickoffs if they only went a yard or two into the endzone. But because the kicker, as well as the entire kickoff team, have been moved up five yards, the likelihood of a return from the endzone is fairly remote. So that was one impact I had overlooked. Maybe others had picked up on it as well, I don't know. Anyhow, we have to assume that any kick over 65 yards will wind up as a touchback. Onto the results.
The total number of kickoffs listed was 27543. I'm going to take out squib kicks, because we're looking at kicks that are supposed to go for distance, not kill time. Onside kicks are actually listed in the data as different than kickoffs, so that's nice. I figure any kick over 30 yards would be acceptable. So out of 27543 kickoffs, 27424 were over 30 yards. Out of those, 2952 produced touchbacks, for a rate of about 10.8%.
There were 12319 kicks less than 65 yards (44.9%).
There were 7713 kicks between 65 and 69 yards (28.1%)
There were 3335 kicks of 70 yards, including touchbacks (12.2%)
There were 4057 kicks of more than 70 yards, including touchbacks (14.8%)
All told, there were 15105 kickoffs of 65 yards or more that would now be touchbacks, or 55.1%. Now, subtracting the ones that actually were touchbacks, and we get 12153 kicks over the past 11 years that would have been affected by the new rule, or 44.3%. Which means that I was pretty wrong (why does that keep happening?) and everyone else was right.
Just for fun, I averaged the stats per game (there were 2921 games in those 11 years), and it turns out that there were about 9.4 meaningful kickoffs per game. Applying the 45% affected rate to those kickoffs means that we can expect about 4 kickoffs per game will now be touchbacks instead of returns. Add that to the 1 touchback per game that we already had, and we have 5 touchbacks per game. More kickoffs will be coming out to the 20 than will be returned. And while that makes me miss the excitement, it does bode well for the safety of football players.
So what does that mean in real life? Well, I only have a sample size of one (Evan and I watched the first game of this NFL season together). And a sample size of one is terrible for statistics. All the scientists say so, which means it’s a good thing I’m not a scientist (both for my credibility, and for the benefit of science. I would set us back 300 years. Easily. 400 years if I really went for it). Anyway, the first kick of the season (according to the play by play, since we missed the first minute of the game) went 3 yards into Green Bay’s endzone, but it was returned to the 24 yard line anyway. After that, a succession of touchbacks occurred. And a kick return touchdown. So honestly, I have no idea what to make of that data. It’s a really good thing I’m not a scientist.
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